The transfer value of players, specifically Arsenal, is intensifying in interest with each passing day. Be it the latest news regarding Bellerin and PSG or how much Torreira will leave for. The numbers representing player value being thrown around wildly vary from person to person.
Therefore, how do you accurately estimate both a player’s worth and their market value?
How to determine value
Firstly, you must understand that these are different things. What a player is worth will differ to their market value. Value is typically assessed through two factors: quality and age.
How good a player is in comparison to how old they are will determine the ballpark where their value falls. Using Jadon Sancho as an example, playing fantastically at the top level for a good club and still only 20-years-old. Borussia Dortmund are demanding Manchester United pay upwards of £100 million to secure the England International.
Whereas 31-year-old Ivan Perisic is reportedly being offered to Bayern Munich for around £15 million by Inter Milan. The Croatian international had a fantastic season for Bayern on loan but at 31-years of age, his value is significantly lower.
To determine a more specific market value for a player there is a plethora of different factors. This makes it difficult to make comparisons between player value.
Value Comparisons
Emi Martinez was previously linked with a move away from Arsenal after claiming the number one spot. Scouring through social media, estimations of the Argentinian’s value ranged from £10-30 million.
The argument used to suggest Martinez would be worth an amount at the upper end was done so referencing Aaron Ramsdale. The Bournemouth goalkeeper made an £18 million move from relegated Bournemouth to Sheffield United.
Many look at Martinez as a superior keeper to Ramsdale and should expect a similar or higher fee. In reality, the reasons for Ramsdale’s fee are significantly different to Martinez.
Whilst Bournemouth were relegated, a combination of parachute payments and sale of Nathan Ake to Manchester City meant The Cherries were not in financial difficulty. The likelihood that a Premier League side showing interest in Ramsdale would appeal to the player, but the club were still in a strong position.
Arsenal’s Selling Point
Arsenal on the other hand are not in such a position. Even as a solidified Premier League club challenging for honours, The Gunners need money. The combination of a high wage-bill, no Champions League football for several seasons and COVID have caused this.
The club’s desire to spend in combination with the public knowledge of their need to sell will reduce their player’s market value. Clubs knowing that Arsenal need money means they have more power when negotiating a fee.
The combination of these scenarios means the market value of Martinez and Ramsdale are difficult to use in a straight comparison. Furthermore, the fact clubs such as Aston Villa who themselves do not have a strong financial incentive will reduce market value again.
Ake’s move to Manchester City can be explained by Bournemouth not needing to sell and the financial weight Manchester City have. Whereas when they pursued Ferran Torres, whilst the young Spaniard is highly rated, Valencia’s financial situation meant The Citizens could get a cut-price deal.
With the interest in Martinez limited to financially restricted clubs in England and Spain in combination with Arsenal’s need to sell, the Argentine’s value is estimated to be between £10-15 million.
Hector Bellerin’s Value
Looking at Hector Bellerin, the latest information is that PSG will offer around £25 million for the Spaniard. There have been suggestions that Bellerin is worth significantly more – some even suggesting £40 million plus. Looking at his profile: homegrown, 25-years-old, consistent starter (when fit) and senior Spanish caps. All of which increase value.
Additionally, with the departure of Thomas Meunier, the French champions need a right-back. Arsenal will be aware of this and be able to use this in negotiations. But with plenty of good right-back options around Europe, this may prove less significant.
In contrast, there are numerous factors which again reduce the market value. Bellerin has had two major injuries in recent seasons. Performances since have not been at the same consistent level prior to the absences. Again, Arsenal need funds and their need to sell reduces the value further. Whilst Bayern and Juventus have shown interest, only PSG are legitimately in for him. Therefore, there is no competition to drive the price up.
This is an important factor. Gabriel Magalhaes’ price increased through competition.
Bellerin is still one of the club’s most sellable and valuable assets. A fee in the region of £30 million, of which most is up-front, should be taken seriously.
Sell to buy
It is amazingly easy to overinflate the market value of a player. Kai Havertz and Jadon Sancho’s exorbitant reported transfer fees give reason for this. But we need to be open to seeing our players leave for less than what they may be worth. We must because without it, the team may not be able to strengthen to the extent we need.