Rebuilds are a tricky thing in professional sports. Arsenal find themselves occupying treacherous waters of a similar nature.
Billy Beane’s near-heroics with the Oakland Athletics and his Moneyball philosophy are one example. Dale Tallon’s efforts with the Florida Panthers becoming an NHL playoff contender once more, is another.
Both franchises targeted real, tangible growth avenues for exploitation. KSE-owned franchises have a recent history of doing the same.
The correct, staggered decisions from the top down will either make or break a sports franchise both in the short term, and medium-to-long term picture.
Cautionary tales of spending your way out of problems
There are ample cautionary tales of teams that have gotten it wrong; sometimes to their utter demise.
1.FC Kaiserslautern are an example of what spending well above your means will do to a club. Faced with the reality of being relegated from the Bundesliga, die Roten Teufel tried to buy their way back into the German top-flight quickly. This plan fell utterly flat.
Looming stadium repayments from the 2002-05 renovation and expansion of the Fritz-Walter-Stadion added to their financial crippling. The club that played a huge role in West Germany’s Das Wunder von Bern now finds itself in insolvency.
An example closer to home comes by way of Manchester United. Failure to tackle a future without Sir Alex Ferguson has left a void in the Theatre of Dreams.
Per Transfermarkt’s data regarding total squad value, United are the fourth-highest spending club in Europe. Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid are the only clubs to have larger outlays of financial capital.
Despite that, United have only seen a value increase of ~$25-million. Minimal growth potential has been observed overall.
This signals gross mismanagement regarding the long-term outlook of their squad. Rather, it speaks to short-termism without direction. A cyclical state of being that often has no end in sight.
Arsenal must do everything in its power to avoid this potential pitfall.
Immediate financial uncertainty
As Mikel Arteta, Edu Gaspar, and the rest of the Arsenal brass move into the summer window, there are more questions than answers at current.
The uncertainty surrounding whether or not the club will compete in the Europa League next season is a current stumbling block.
Recent quotes from Arteta have suggested that it could be a difficult summer. It is hard to gauge our spending power in the market with financial uncertainty.
While it is not Europe’s premier club competition, the Europa League still represents substantial revenue streams for reinvestment. Failure to secure European football next term could amount to Arsenal missing out on ~20-25m in funds available this summer.
Such uncertainty around our financial standing has already seen the Gunners potentially miss out on key summer target Thomas Partey.
Interest from the Ghanaian international midfielder is well-known, but the club brass has been left in a current position of a need to barter.
Unable to meet the full valuation of his release clause, Raul and co. have tried to offer want-away French youngster Mattéo Guendouzi in a player-plus-cash deal. This was logically rebuffed by Atlético Madrid, holding firm in their desire to receive full financial compensation.
Further rumors of Arsenal interest have them linked with Brazilian international duo Philippe Coutinho, and Willian. While these are players of a quality pedigree, questions should be asked if they herald the correct directional approach for a club truly beginning its rebuild.
The rough waters of short-termism are one that Arsenal could fail to navigate successfully.
Arsenal’s Premier League status forces other avenues
Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Tottenham are all substantially ahead of us currently. At the very least, in their projects on and off the pitch. Arsenal certainly cannot hope to compete financially.
City have the joint-second highest total squad value in the world at $1.13bn. To get there, however, they had to spend ~$990m; more than any other club The difference in increase of $138m is good enough for thirty-first in Europe; all-in-all, a poor return.
By comparison, Bayern Munich spent under half that of City; $441m. With a total squad value $1.02bn (5th), the Bavarian giants have the largest increase in market value relative to purchase in Europe.
Regardless of the size and stature Bayern can boast, their long-term approach to squad building speaks to the results it can bring.
Rarely spending above 35-million-pounds for a player (just six times in the last ten years), Bayern fly the flag of clubs who look to buy value players who contribute immediately, while also improving in the future. Kingsley Coman, Joshua Kimmich, and Niklas Süle are prime examples.
Ivan Gazidis famously stated that the Emirates era would help us compete with the likes of Bayern. This was not what he meant.
The irony, however, is clubs like Bayern are still showing us the blueprint forward.
In the coming summer and 2020-21 season, where the club is desperate to get back into Europe, this could not be more relevant.
The route of spending to hopefully provide a quick route back into Europe is a financial minefield. Failure to secure qualification, having spent above your means, begets more financial issues.
Prudent planning allows sustainable growth potential
If we circle back to the potential Coutinho deal, we can easily analyze the danger. Making financial comparisons to a deal for – say – Dominik Szoboszlai, it’s clear what makes more sense by the numbers.
Taking one or two liberties and applying likely scenarios, the financial picture of both deals paints two different pictures. Coutinho, only 215k/week, even if he took a pay-cut, would cost substantially more regarding wage contributions.
For a club already struggling to deal with its well-documented wage structure problems, another six-figure weekly salary on the books would be unwise.
On top of this, spending ~15-19m for a one-season solution, only to then have to spend money the following summer to find the actual long-term solution makes little sense.
It would also undoubtedly cost more overall than a one-time purchase of a younger player with clear growable potential and an almost guaranteed increase in market value.
One year of Coutinho at the carpet costing half of what four years of Szoboszlai would financially command overall is poor business in every sense of the word.
What should be advocated, beyond transfer deals, is a long-term strategy of tiered goals. Player purchasing included.
It is important that Arsenal crawls before it can walks. And walks before it can run. To throw all of our eggs in the basket of immediate Champions League return is too high-risk.
Unfortunately for us, we do not compete in a league where such bounce-backs are easily done. Certainly before, and absolutely not at current.With clubs above and around us spending similar if not larger figures on players, a financial cold war reeks of disaster.
The long-term must be heavily considered.
Achieving top four should not be a rush goal for Arsenal
Taking our time to get back into genuine top four contention should take longer than one year. And with a squad in-flux, and star players increasingly being a non-factor down the line, there’s no better time to adopt this approach.
Our initial goals next season should be – especially if we fail to win the FA Cup – qualifying for the Europa League. On form, Arteta had us fully capable of making a top six/seven finish in the league.
Realistic goals could be set moving forward once back into the Europa League places. The revenue increase would only aid things further.
Arteta’s time at Arsenal must be viewed as if he was in public office. Putting a legitimate three-to-five year plan in motion would be the base-level requirement. One where, if he did leave the club, a manager of similar make and model could come in and seamlessly pick up the mantle.
What exacerbated United’s struggles post-Fergie were the evident contrasting styles of his successors. David Moyes, Louis van Gaal, José Mourinho, and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer could not be any more different.
Four very different managers over a period of seven years makes for a nightmare in terms of squad building. All brought to the table different philosophies, with different player needs.
This is what makes things so much easier – cleaner, even – for other clubs, particularly on the continent. It’s not the incoming managers that set the maneuvering watch. Clubs that has a nailed-down philosophy that any prospective headmaster must subscribe to, and actively apply if hired.
It is for these reasons that a club like Ajax has remained largely unchanged, but is still highly successful.
What is Arsenal now & what can it become?
Part of our process under new management and stewardship is to decide what we intend to be. What path to venture down, even without a paddle. High-risk and high-reward, versus low-risk and slow (sometimes frustratingly) but steady.
Sustainable progression is so much more than just the path taken. It’s in what shape you arrive when the path reaches its destination.
What use is a plan of getting back into the Champions League, if you cannot stay in it once you returned. Finishing top four next season would be a delight, but can anyone look at our current squad – even with additions – and think we could remain there?
How you intend on settling upon arrival at your destination is connected to the route taken. That new plot of land at the end of your journey.
Arsenal should strive to be Jamestown, not the lost colony of Roanoke.
Dispatching Frank Lampard’s Chelsea at Wembley would throw this out the window, however.
Qualifying for the Europa League not only gives us additional revenue, but a real genuine chance at completing the signing of Thomas Partey; a player who is capable of accelerating our progression on the pitch considerably.
Despite that possibility, and even if that’s precisely what comes to pass, slow and steady always wins the race.
Great read Drew, cheers!
Arsenal seem to still be trying to find their identity in the modern game. We don’t have a clear competitive advantage relative to the rest of the league and still want to position ourselves as a big club based on reputation without the requisite financial backing (an incredibly scary proposition). This summer will define whether Raul, Edu and co. will follow a path of short-term thinking for immediate Champions League qualification at the expense of a longer-term, more sustainable route to qualifying for Champions League on an annual basis.
I would like to say that it’s possible to achieve both (short- and long-term moves) in one summer, but we have to be careful with how the finances are spread out – too much in the short-term mindset and it’ll come at the cost of that long-term game. If we can balance a ready-made, experienced player on a free (Willian) with a prime aged player that can be transformative (Partey) and still manage to bring in a couple young players with big potential/future sell-on value (Szoboszlai, Gabriel, Ceballos etc.) then it could theoretically work.